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Dow Jones Industrial Finally Signals a Hold

May 23 2009

Dow Jones Industrial Finally Signals a Hold

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally signaled a hold at the end of this week with all four major indexes now in limbo waiting for a move higher or lower. The charts look like tops with the Dow and the S&P 500 index already completing their top formations. The Nasdaq needs to fall below $1664 while the Russell 2000 can form a top formation with a break below $471.82.

The Week That Was

What looked like a turnaround in housing one day was shattered by a poor housing starts number the next. Some banks got a boost also early in the week with analysts increasing Bank of America's target price and Lowe's beating estimates to give further aid to a Monday rally. But reports on unemployment and housing later in the week sent the indexes lower and changed the bias of some to a more negative view.

The Coming Week

A lot of retailers give earnings this coming week which shouldn't provide much support to a rally that has stalled out. Autozone (AZO) is expected to do well, Big Lots (BIG) could beat expectations with consumers trading down to discount retailers, but that could be all.

There is brighter news on the economic front with Consumer Confidence expected to improve, Existing Home Sales, and New Homes Sales also both expected to be better than the prior reading. Durable Goods Ordered comes out on Friday and could lead some to feel better about the economy. And the Preliminary GDP reading comes out on Friday for the first quarter. GDP is expected to decline by 5.5%. This is better than the previous decline of 6.1%.

This week should provide a signal both technically and fundamentally on the direction the markets with head for the coming month of June.

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