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GDP Beats but Revisions Are Rough

Jul 31 2009

GDP Beats but Revisions Are Rough

The market news today is mixed along with the action of the indexes. The GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2009 was better than expected but past quarters were worse than thought. I guess in the long run only the next quarter matters, the most recent is interesting, and the past are in the past.

GDO Revisions

The prior quarter’s revision from a poor –5.5% to an even worse –6.4% gives everyone pause but it really has no affect on the current situation and the markets are always looking to the future for buying inspiration. And that is what the -1.0% in the 2nd quarter should provide. The recession is ending after four quarters of negative growth in the 3rd quarter and some government policies are working like the Cash for Clunkers program.

Next Week Economic Numbers

Next week the market expects more mixed news with good numbers on Construction Spending, the ISM Index, Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales, Hourly Earnings, and Non-Farm Payrolls. But expectations are for worse than prior numbers for Personal Income, Factory Orders, and the Employment Rate.

I think the improved outlook for the US in the third quarter will outweigh all of the news next week with some volatility around better than expected numbers and worse than expected numbers.

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