With the demand for oil continuing to increase every year from 1 to 2 percent, the price is destined to rebound higher within the next couple of years. Supply has fallen due to a lack of new production with the current price suppressed. We have seen trading around $30 with prices moving around a little bit, a general trend upward over the past 3 months. This price increase has been noticed at retail gasoline stations across the country.

Some view a yearly target of $45/barrel as being reasonable with a two to three year target of $60.

There are a couple of caveats to the price discussion. Derivatives are largely responsible for the price of the commodity. So supply and demand are often obscured from the current prices by these trading instruments. And their price is more volatile than a straight commodity traded on an exchange would be. A world event could cause the price to fall or jump quickly.

An old style analysis of the price of oil would include OPEC to a large degree. But new suppliers in the world, like Russia, are not a part of OPEC and can produce as much oil as they want, keeping prices lower than the cartel would like.