Try building a short
position in a name that has shown weakness.
The stock of The Cheesecake Factory
(CAKE) rallied slightly today off of it’s all time lows as the overall market rebounded
strongly when presented with decent earnings, a drop in the price of oil, and a
better than anticipated GDP number around the corner on Thursday. But Friday
and thereafter could continue the downtrend the DOW Industrials has been following
the last week.
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The short Market Vectors Coal (KOL) trade is not working and
could easily run against us this coming week with additional coal companies
reporting earnings.
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A technology trade that will be somewhat market neutral is
the combination of shorting VMWare (VMW) and being long International Business
Machines (IBM). If the market stays in a trading pattern you will be able to
profit on both the long and the short side of this trade.
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A number of coal stocks have fallen out of favor as the
price of coal has dramatically fallen over the past three weeks. There was an
initial spike down in coal at the beginning of July with a small rally. Now the
chart for coal has broken below resistance and is due for a further decline.
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Amgen Inc (AMGN) is looking very attractive heading into
earnings with the additional good news of Nplate being approved by the Food and
Drug Administration on Wednesday or Thursday.
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This was a difficult week for bears of financials as
financials shot up 11% on Wednesday for next to no real reason minus a less
than terrible earnings report from Wells Fargo and the federal government
threatening short sellers.
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Starbucks (SBUX)
is too expensive and not just the coffee but the stock itself. The stock
reached a new 52 week low today as the market sold off during the morning and
has rebounded some. But the price to earnings of the stock is still too
expensive for the limited revenue growth and the declining earnings the company
is now experiencing.
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After reaching a new 52 week low on Monday, SunTrust jumped 10%
along with all financials on Tuesday but returned to its selling pattern on
Wednesday falling 5%.
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I was watching the housing stocks back in August and
September of 2007 when they were falling to new lows everyday but switched out
of the industry in favor of banks, autos and financials. But after seeing an
old name reaching a new low after-hours, I started to re-examine the old names.
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Both the quasi-government corporations at the center of the mortgage crisis have been performing poorly and neither looks to be in the process of bottoming at this time.
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Just when you think the Banks, Brokers and Money Centers
cannot go any lower the Proshares Ultrashort Financials ETF (SKF) hits a new
high.
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