Nvidia (NVDA), the rockstar of the AI chip world, is gearing up to drop its first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. This isn’t just another earnings report—it’s a massive deal that Wall Street is buzzing about. Everyone’s watching to see if Nvidia can keep its hot streak going, especially with trade tensions, a hefty $5.5 billion hit from China export rules, and whispers about whether the AI boom is cooling off. Let’s break down what’s coming and why it matters.

What Wall Street’s Betting On

Analysts are expecting Nvidia to crush it again, thanks to the crazy demand for its AI chips. Here’s the scoop on what they’re predicting for the quarter:

• Revenue: Around $43.28 billion, a huge 66.2% jump from last year’s $26.0 billion.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): About $0.88, up 44% from $0.61 a year ago.

Those numbers are wild, showing Nvidia’s still the king of AI chips that power the data centers for big names like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. But here’s the catch: that EPS is actually a tiny dip from last quarter’s $0.89, which has some folks wondering if Nvidia’s growth party might be slowing down a bit.

The Blackwell Buzz and Data Center Domination

Nvidia’s data center business is where the magic happens—it’s like 91% of their whole deal now. Last quarter, they raked in a record $35.6 billion from data centers alone, up 93% from the year before, thanks to their fancy new Blackwell chips and the trusty Hopper platform. Blackwell, in particular, is stealing the show, pulling in $11 billion in its first full quarter. That’s the fastest any Nvidia product has ever taken off.

This week, everyone’s dying to hear how Blackwell’s doing. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, keeps saying these chips are perfect for both building AI models and running them, which could keep Nvidia ahead of the pack. With demand for Blackwell apparently through the roof, the big question is whether Nvidia can keep up with orders as they crank up production.

The China Curveball

Here’s where things get tricky. Nvidia’s taking a $5.5 billion hit this quarter because of new U.S. export rules that are basically shutting them out of China. Jensen Huang said these restrictions have already cost them $15 billion in potential sales there, and China used to be a fifth of their business. Now, it’s looking like it might drop to nearly nothing.

But some analysts, like the folks at Wedbush and Oppenheimer, aren’t sweating it too much. They think Nvidia’s got enough demand from places like the U.S. and even new markets like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to make up for it. Nvidia’s been cozying up with partners in those regions, like a recent deal with Saudi Arabia’s Humain, to keep the growth train rolling. Still, investors want to know how Nvidia’s going to handle this China mess—maybe with a new chip that plays by the rules?

Why Nvidia’s Earnings Move the Market

Nvidia’s not just a company—it’s a market mover. Its stock, along with the other “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, has been fueling the market’s rally for years. A great report could light a fire under AI stocks, while a stumble might send shockwaves through tech land, especially with markets already jittery about tariffs and rising interest rates.

Over on X, traders are all over the place. Some are hyped, betting Nvidia’s stock could rocket to $145 or $150 if earnings are stellar. Others are bracing for a wild ride, pointing to that China hit and sky-high expectations. Options traders are guessing the stock could swing 7.4% the day after earnings, which is actually less dramatic than the 11.3% average from the last eight quarters.

What Else to Watch

While data centers are the main event, Nvidia’s got other stuff going on:

• Gaming: Their gaming business, think GeForce RTX cards, took a hit last quarter, dropping 11% to $2.5 billion. New Blackwell-based RTX 50 Series cards might give it a boost, but it’s still a side gig compared to data centers.

• Automotive: This one’s picking up speed, with a record $570 million last quarter, up 103% from last year. Deals with companies like Toyota and Aurora for self-driving cars are starting to pay off, showing Nvidia’s AI game isn’t just about servers.

How’s the Stock Doing?

Nvidia’s stock has had a bumpy 2025, down 2% so far this year after an insane 1,800% run over five years. Some worrywarts are talking about an “AI bubble,” with competitors like China’s DeepSeek offering cheaper options and Microsoft reportedly scaling back some data center plans. But recent trade talk progress, like a U.S.-China tariff truce, and Nvidia’s push into new markets have pushed the stock up to $131.29 as of Friday’s close.

Most analysts are still Team Nvidia, with 16 out of 18 tracked by Visible Alpha saying “buy” and a price target of $164—that’s 25% higher than now. Wedbush and Oppenheimer love Nvidia’s edge and upcoming chips like B300, Rubin, and Rubin Ultra. But Morningstar’s more cautious, saying the stock’s fairly priced at $125 and warning about trade risks and competition.

What to Listen for on the Call

When Jensen Huang hops on the earnings call at 5:00 p.m. ET, here’s what everyone’s dying to hear:

1. China Plan: How’s Nvidia dealing with that $5.5 billion hit? Is a new China-friendly chip in the works?

2. Blackwell Update: Is demand for Blackwell still crazy, and are supply issues easing up?

3. AI Spending: Are big tech companies still pouring cash into AI, or is the pace slowing?

4. What’s Next: Will Nvidia’s guidance for next quarter keep up its habit of beating expectations and raising the bar?