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All Posts Author: Patrick Stevens

Dell Falls on Poor Earnings

Nov 20 2009
659
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Dell Falls on Poor Earnings

Dell Inc (DELL) reported today a 54% decline in income for it’s most recent quarter along with a 15% reduction in revenue. The company missed estimates on both fronts and the stock was battered 10% lower on Friday. The bad report has made some investors question the technology leadership and the overall market rally.

Opposite of Other Tech Giants

These earnings are in contrasts to a number of other technology companies that have beaten estimates and performed well during the 3rd quarter. HP, Intel, and IBM have all done well with HP and Intel both operating in the consumer PC space. Michael Dell stated during the announcement that the company has seen consumer strength in the last 30-60 days. This would correspond with the beginning of holiday shopping in the US.

Consumer Buying

Dell has not suffered because of the consumer in the last quarter but because of it’s reliance on business spending and government contracts. Both business and government revenue declined for Dell. Laptops and Netbooks have become hot items this year and Dell is missing some of this trend. At the same time Dell is moving into the services market with its recent acquisition of Perot Systems.

http://www.tradestockamerica.com

© 2009 FastSwings.com

Gold: Don’t Fight the Trend

Nov 11 2009
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Gold: Don’t Fight the Trend

An old saying in trading technical charts is ‘don’t fight the trend’. And this has been the case with Gold over the past year, every pause in the rally of the price of gold has been a good opportunity to buy. Of course this could reverse if the US dollar was to gain support with a monetary change by the Federal Reserve. But that doesn’t not appear to be on the minds of the Federal Reserve.

Gold rallied to a new high today as Federal Reserve officials spoke about keeping the current historic low interest rates in place until there is a more forceful economic recovery in America. Gold is moving in the reverse direction as the US Dollar which has fallen over the past 15 months and looks to continue falling until their is a policy change.

Inflation is also a concern for traders who are predicting a rise in consumer costs as the dollar continues to fall. Gold is then used as a hedge against the inflation and the fall in the dollar. Gold reached a new high of $1119.10 an ounce this morning on the NYME and closed slightly lower by mid-afternoon. Investors can play the price of gold rather conservatively by buying the Exchange Traded Fund, Spiders Gold Shares (GLD), and following practical trading guidelines.


Federal Reserve Holds Rates as Expected

Nov 04 2009
589
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Federal Reserve Holds Rates as Expected

The Federal Reserve continue to hold the Fed Funds Rate at 0.25 %, historically low rates. The news created a mid-day rally in the stock market that faded into the close. The Fed believes economic activity has improved but is fearful about new job losses in the US and the possibility of tightening credit for consumers. There is no plan to increase the rate in the near term.

Service Industry

The Service Industry also added support early in the day with a decent report. The ISM reported service industry growth for the 2nd quarter in a row last month. The reading came in at 50.6 compared to a reading of 50.9 in September. Both readings signal growth. The Market was expecting 51.5 but rallied on the report non-the-less.

Economic Calendar

The remainder of the week remains busy with Initial Claims and Continuing Claims being released on Thursday. While Friday is a very active reporting day with Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 am, the Unemployment Rate at 8:30 am, and Wholesale Inventories at 10 am in addition to many other government economic reports.

The late sell-off in the markets would likely be related to the unemployment numbers coming later this week. Initial Claims is expected to come in lower than the last report at 522,000. Non-Farm Payrolls will also improve if in-line with estimates of –175,000. But the Unemployment Rate will still climb to a troubling rate of 10%. The markets will struggle to find buyers until all the reports are out this week.

First Republic Bank Sold to Investors

Oct 21 2009
410
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First Republic Bank Sold to Investors

The deal has been confirmed that First Republic Bank is being sold by Bank of America (BAC) to a group on investors which include the current management, Colony Capital, and General Atlantic. The bank had assets of $19 billion when it was sold as a part of Merrill Lynch in January. Banc of America was off slightly on the news today.

Merrill Lynch Purchase

First Republic was last purchased for $1.8 billion by Merrill Lynch in 2007 and is now reportedly being sold for near $1 billion. The banks wealth management division was similar to the currently owned US Trust asset under BAC ownership. Bank of America is selling assets to improve it's balance sheet at this time.

Wells Fargo and US Bancorp

Bank of America’s asset sales are occurring while other banks like Wells Fargo (WFC) and US Bancorp (USB) report earnings that are modestly higher than expectations. Wells Fargo reported a $2.6 billion profit for the third quarter even as loan losses expanded. US Bancorp reported a 4.7% profit growth for the quarter and stated that their loan loses have not grown as much as within previous quarters.

Bank of America

Bank of America missed it’s last quarterly estimate by 23.8% and has seen analysts reduce their expectations for the fourth quarter of 2009, the first quarter of 2010, and the year ending in December. BAC stock is not the strongest bank stock at this time and could experience selling pressure in the months to come.

© 2009 FastSwings.com

General Electric (GE) Falls after Earnings

Oct 16 2009
184
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General Electric (GE) Falls after Earnings

General Electric Co (GE) fell on Friday after it released it’s most recent quarterly earnings. The mid-day decline was near 4.25% from the prior days close of $16.79 share. The profit for GE declined 44% from the previous year’s period as GE Capital struggled and revenue also declined 20% as jet engines, MRI machines, and other items saw weak orders.

GE Capital

The company said in their conference call that the revenue fall can be attributed to their downsizing of GE Capital mostly. The action of General Electric in addition to Bank of America caused some caution to arise in investors that had celebrated good earnings news from JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs just yesterday.

Earnings Expectations

Revenues are expected to fall another 8.5% in the fourth quarter with earnings dropping 33% compared to the fourth quarter in 2008. Analyst are not anticipating any improvement in the numbers as they have held steady in their assessment for some time. The company had surprised to the upside the past two quarters which makes this quarter even more disheartening.

GE Trade

I would not be a holder of GE at this time as its stock price has increased from 10.78 in July to 16.79 just yesterday. If you currently holding the stock this would be a good time to take some of the profits you have made during this recent run-up.

Why Many Startups Fail

Oct 15 2009
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Why Many Startups Fail

According recent statistics from the Small Business Administration (SBA) 90% of the small businesses fail within two years of starting due to many entrepreneurs lacking basic knowledge in handling company operations. Let’s explore the reasons why businesses fail and how you can avoid such a failure?

Starting a Business for the Wrong Reasons:

Many times Entrepreneurs start a business on the hope that they can quickly make money or have more free time with their families. A startup created for such a reason will have more chances to fail. Companies based on activities the entrepreneur loves to do and is passionate about often are more successful.

A Lack of Planning:

Most new businesses fail because of deficient planning. Careful planning focused on the industry is quite important for any startup to become successful. At times Entrepreneurs do not have a proper vision for their corporation and disregard the need of a healthy developed business plan. Be sure the product or service you are providing fulfills a need for your customers.

Inadequate Funding:

Another common reason for which startups fall short is underestimating the quantity of money they will need for their operation. Due to which, there is always a hazard to company strength and growth. Entrepreneurs should perform meticulous research on how much money they will need, including a range of expenses and the time it will take to create the business. You need to find unfailing investors who are consistent and can invest swiftly.

Good Location:

A high-quality Location plays a vital role in making a business successful and dreadful location can harm your business without difficulty. Factors like where your customers are located, location of your competitors, ease of access, traffic, etc. are required to consider in finding an appropriate location of your company.

Unreliable Employees:

Dependable employees are extremely important for the success of a business. A company should have employees with precise skills for the given field. A large amount of uncreative employees’ increases expenses whereas fewer employees then the workload requires, can be overpowering and tricky to handle. Hence, an entrepreneur should have appropriate facts to direct the work force.

Poor Marketing Strategy:

You cannot produce revenue when your customers are not aware of your products or services. You should have a successful marketing approach which entirely focuses on your target audience and tells them about your organization. Many startups fail because they do not promote themselves or do not promote to their target audience.

Overexpansion:

Most business owners get perplexed when it comes to the extension of their business. They want to expand very swiftly which leads them to situations like deficient capital and insolvency. A business should be extended once your company has a rock-solid client foundation.

Gagandeep Singh is working as an Internet Marketing Executive for Fortepromo, which provides high quality promotional products to help companies in promoting their brand.

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Gold, Silver, Coal and Metal Mining Rallies on Weak US Dollar

Oct 12 2009
550
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Gold, Silver, Coal and Metal Mining Rallies on Weak US Dollar

On Monday energy prices rallied on the weaker US Dollar and some help from lower temperatures in the states, and the gold, silver, coal and metal mining rally continued. The weak dollar has led investors to pour money into commodities that are traded in the US Dollar including oil and natural gas over the past couple of months. 2009 has been a good year for commodities with Continuous Commodity Index (GCC) moving from $21.49 to a recent 3 month high of $24.54.

Gold and Silver

In the gold space the Spiders Gold Shares (GLD) is the safest and least volatile way to speculate in the trend continuing higher in commodity prices and gold in particular. The Exchange Traded Fund reach a new 52-week high of $103.64 just days ago. Some are warning of a bubble in commodities which is true but as long as the dollar continues to weaken, the chance of  a major change in direction is unlikely. The signs of economic improvement in America and in other major economies around the world boast well for commodities as supply will increase as countries begin to build new infrastructure again.

Coal & Metal Mining

Coal and Metal Mining is seeing similar interest from investors but taking a look at individual shares within the industry does not present a decent investment. BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) is the largest company in the area which has some decent growth 54.5% earnings with –10.6% revenue for the year but is in the midst of a fairly tough quarter so could have topped out at a recent three month high. This is fairly representative of many of the stocks in the industry.

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New Residential Construction Industries Jump on Mortgages

Oct 08 2009
292
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New Residential Construction Industries Jump on Mortgages

A number of industries related to residential home construction including New Residential Construction itself, moved higher today as mortgage rates continue to fall. Residential Construction moved higher 5.7% as an industry with Cement jumping 4.34% higher and Lumber/Wood Production also higher 3.66%.

By Steve Patterson

Residential Building

A number of names in New Residential Construction moved higher today including Brookfield Homes (BHS), Standard Pacific (SPF), Hovanian (HOV), Lennar (LEN), and Ryland (RYL). Brookfield Homes has bounced around recently with the economy, moving down to $3.30 a share in July and rebounding to $8.33 a share in September. Recently the stock has traded near $6.00. Sales have continued to fall for Brookfield, down 25% this quarter compared to a year ago along with quarterly losses improving. Many of the companies in the industry are seeing losses improve dramatically compared to a year ago even as sales continue to decline. The home builders are hoping for an additional First Time Home Buyer Credit to be passed by Congress but have not moved dramatically from their recent lows.

Related Industries

Cement names CRH (CRH), James Hardie (JHX), and Cemex (CX) all moved higher today in sync with Residential Construction. Lumber names that jumped upwards of 9.25% include Koppers Holding (KOP), Louisiana Pacific (LPX), and Weyerhauser Co (WY). Weyerhauser declared their dividend today of 5 cents.

 

Reduce Your Debt!

Market Reversals Are Hard to Navigate

Oct 02 2009
344
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Market Reversals Are Hard to Navigate

The market has reversed itself from the high reached after the Federal Reserve Meeting ended in September and is starting to move lower on a consistent basis. It’s a good time to be neutral in your portfolio with a slight negative stance. With earnings season around the corner starting in Mid October and the Holiday season to follow, the markets could reverse themselves once again. So watching the action of the major indexes is important and adjusting weekly is necessary.

Economic Reports This Week

This week also saw some poor economic numbers, below what was expected by the market. Consumer Confidence can in weak at 53.1, ADP Employment was –254,000, Chicago PMI 46.1 vs 52.0, Initial Claims at 551,000, the ISM Index at 52.6 vs 54.0 expected, and Non Farm Payrolls –263,000 vs –175,000 expected. A couple of good numbers included GDP for the 2nd Quarter, Personal Income, and Personal Spending. But the bad outweighed the good and the market traded lower all week.

Economic Reports Next Week

Next is a very little economic calendar week which is a good thing as the bad numbers are making any advance near impossible. Initial Claims are released on October 8th with a couple less important reports coming out at the end of the week including Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance. If a couple companies can make positive adjustments to their earnings predictions prior to the start of earnings season, the market could stabilize next week before a new rally at the start of earnings.

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Nike (NKE) Beats and Rallies After Hours

Sep 29 2009
203
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Nike (NKE) Beats and Rallies After Hours

Nike reported their most recent close after the close of trading today and beat the street with cost cutting on weaker revenue. A conservative forecast didn’t stop traders from buying shares in after-hours trading.

Quarterly Earnings

Nike Inc (NKE) made $513 million in profit or $1.04 a share compared to estimates of 97 cents a share. This was a slight improvement to what the company earned a year ago during the same quarter, $510 million or $1.03 a share. The revenue during the quarter is a slightly different story as it actually fell 12% down to $4.8 billion.

Future Orders

Nike also isn’t too optimistic about the current quarter which extends into the holiday season. Future orders are anticipated to be down 6% compared to last year’s same winter quarter. The stock has rallied from $53.31 on September 2nd to a three month high of $60.09 at the close today. This run-up doesn’t necessarily correlate well with the overall news tonight.

Analysts see revenue and earnings slightly negative for the next couple of quarters while the current price to earnings ratio is 19.83. This is not a situation that should persist. If future orders do not improve, look for the stock to fall over time.

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