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Will the Fed Cut Rates in May 2025? Here’s What’s on the Table

Will the Fed Cut Rates in May 2025? Here’s What’s on the Table


Picture this: you’re sipping your morning coffee, scrolling through the news, and there it is again—another headline about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on May 7, 2025. If you’re wondering whether the Fed will finally lower interest rates and make borrowing a bit easier on your wallet, you’re not alone. From householders who want to mortgage rates to business managers who are planning ahead, everyone's holding their breath for what the Fed will do. So let's break down what's happening, why it's a big issue, and if a rate cut is on the menu.

Where Things Stand Today


The Federal Reserve, those who set the benchmark interest rate that seeps into everything from your credit card bill to your automobile loan, is in a dilemma. Their job is to keep inflation in check (ideally at 2%) while making sure the job market doesn’t tank. Right now, the federal funds rate—the key rate they control—sits at 4.25% to 4.5%. That’s where it’s been since December 2024, after the Fed slashed rates three times last year to cool things down from the sky-high inflation we saw in 2022.
But here's the thing: inflation's still hanging around like an unwelcome guest. As of March 2025, it's 2.8%, near the Fed's 2% goal but sticky enough to keep them on edge. Meanwhile, the economy's running along just fine—unemployment stands at a decent 4.4%, and people are still spending—but there's a cloud on the horizon. President Trump's latest trade tariffs on imports from nations like China, Mexico, and Canada are giving jitters regarding quicker prices and decelerating growth. The Fed's latest estimate? The economy may dip to 1.7% this year from 2.1% it predicted in December.

FederalReserve

What's the Buzz About May?


When Fed policymakers sit down on May 7, they'll be reading reports, talking, and probably energizing themselves on coffee too. Most analysts—and even folks bantering on X—think the Fed will roll up to the brakes and keep rates steady. An X post I read set the odds of a May rate cut at below 10%, and that's what Wall Street is guessing. Here's why the Fed might sit tight:

Inflation's Still Sticky: Inflation's not yelling "emergency" at 2.8%, but it's not 2% either. Those tariffs could drive prices up still another notch—i.e., pricier groceries or electronics—so the Fed's on its toes.
The Economy Remains Strong: Employment is good, and folks continue to use their cards. The Fed Chair recently said that the economy doesn't seem to be pleading for a rate cut at the moment.
Tariffs Are a Wild Card: Trump's trade policy is a twist no one saw coming. Higher tariffs would lead to higher costs for firms and consumers, which would plausibly keep inflation high. The Fed's still working to figure out just how big the impact will be.
Markets Are Eyeing June: Wall Street's betting on June rate cuts, maybe four 25-basis-point reductions all the way through 2025, dropping the rate to 3.25% to 3.5%. That's just a best guess, however, and will hinge on what the data show.

Still, there are those crossing their fingers that relief comes faster. There's some buzz on X that the economy could dip into a recession—some are even estimating that there's a 61% chance come autumn—and if that happens, then the Fed could have to make a move sooner.

What Would Make the Fed Hit the Rate-Cut Button?


Even if May is off the table, there are a few things that could get the Fed to lower rates later in 2025. Consider these the Fed's "break glass in case of emergency" situations:

Inflation Finally Chills: If inflation starts to creep back towards 2%, especially if tariffs don't punch as hard as expected, the Fed might feel at ease easing. Some J.P. Morgan analysts think this will happen by mid-2025.
Jobs Start Wobbling: When hiring slows or unemployment increases, the Fed will need to step in to avoid the job market from crashing. One of the Fed members, Christopher Waller, opined that a weak labor market would be an indication to cut.
Anxiety Over Recession Rises: If the economy starts to resemble that it's headed for a slump—i.e., as a result of tariffs constricting growth—the Fed can lower rates to put some pep in businesses and consumers. J.P. Morgan's been tossing around a 40% probability of recession this year, so don't rule it out.
World's Softening Up: Other big central banks, including those in Europe and the UK, are already cutting rates. If the Fed gets pressured to keep U.S. borrowing costs competitive, they might follow suit.

What This Means for You


If the Fed holds steady in May, don’t expect your mortgage or credit card payments to get cheaper anytime soon. Mortgage rates, which were around 6.7% in March, will likely stay high for a bit. Same goes for auto loans and other borrowing. On the flip side, if you’ve got money in a savings account or CD, you’re still earning decent interest, so there’s a silver lining.
For investors, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster. Stocks can get jittery when the Fed sounds cautious—think back to December 2024, when markets dipped nearly 3% after a hawkish Fed statement. If you’re into bonds, short-term ones might be a smart play, as some experts suggest, since rates aren’t dropping fast.

What’s Next?


The Fed has six additional meetings through May—June 18, July 30, September 17, October 29, and December 10. Most, like the folks at Morningstar, anticipate three cuts this year, perhaps dropping the rate as low as 3.5% to 3.75%. But the Fed's own forecast in December of 2024 was less optimistic, anticipating only two cuts. With tariffs, inflation, and the economy all hanging in the balance, it's anyone's bet how this works out.
Powell distilled it in March when he said the economic outlook's gotten "more uncertain." Translation? The Fed's playing it by ear, and they're not doing anything big until they get a clearer picture.

Amazon's Strategic Bet: $4 Billion Investment in AI Pioneer Anthropic

Amazon's Strategic Bet: $4 Billion Investment in AI Pioneer Anthropic

In a groundbreaking move, Amazon.com Inc. is set to pour a staggering sum of up to $4 billion into Anthropic, the renowned AI startup behind the innovative Claude chatbot. Founded by the dynamic sibling duo, Dario and Daniela Amodei, both former OpenAI stalwarts, Anthropic has been making waves in the world of artificial intelligence.

Anthropic

With this investment, Amazon is positioning itself to go head-to-head with the formidable forces of Microsoft-backed ChatGPT and Google's Bard.

The narrative of Anthropic, as crafted by the Amodei siblings, is one of passion, innovation, and the relentless pursuit of excellence. Anthropic gains not only a substantial influx of resources but also the invaluable expertise and infrastructure that Amazon brings to the table. This synergy of talents and resources could very well birth the next generation of AI breakthroughs.

Why You Should Buy Shopify Stock

Why You Should Buy Shopify Stock

Shopify

If you hold Shopify stock as I write this article, you have many reasons to be happy. This is because revenues and earnings for the second quarter of 2021 beat the expectations of most shareholders. What does this mean in terms of dollars and cents? Well, the right call is to let the numbers speak and stats speak for themselves.

A Summary of Shopify Revenue and Earnings

For the quarter ended June 30 2021, earnings per share on an adjusted basis stands at $2.24. In percentage terms, this is an improvement of 113% over the last year's figure. In addition, revenues increased by 57% to stand at $1.12 billion. Clearly, these are impressive numbers when you compare them to last year's numbers. Most analysts expected earnings of about 97 cents per share but the got more than double what they expected. To put things in perspective, let us look at last year's results. Last year, earnings per share was $1.05 while revenues were $714 million. If things continue to go well for Shopify in the next two quarters, the company will keep making progress.

Grounds for Optimism

Shopify investors are clearly optimistic and there are grounds for this optimism. First off, Shopify earned higher than anticipated revenue and incurred lower than expected operating expenses. It follows that the company's income for the 2021 financial year will be higher than it was in 2020.

A Better Business Environment

The fact that the world is winning the war against Covid-19 is another reason to expect better days ahead for Shopify. This is because a better business environment (without the ravages of Covid-19), means more business for Shopify and its business partners. Shopify is taking advantage of the current momentum by building a U.S. distribution network for storing and shipping products to customers and merchants. Meanwhile, the Shopify success story is not based on optimism alone. There is solid evidence to expect better days ahead for this firm. This is because merchant solutions revenue climbed to $785 million and that's an increase of 52% over the previous year. Again, subscription solutions revenue stands at $328.1 million and this represents a 70% hike over the previous year.

Phil Mickelson's Insider Trading Scandal: No Penalty Stroke?

Phil Mickelson

The Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) last month issued a statement alleging that famous golfer Phil Mickelson profited to the tune of at least $931,000 due to insider trading. While the two other men implicated in the case, a professional gambler and a former board member of Dean Foods, are facing potential jail time (the typical punishment in such situations), Mickelson hasn't been charged with any crime at all.

The U.S. federal government has been investigating this case for decades, but instead of being contrite and owning up to the alleged crimes Mickelson's lawyer issued a statement stating the pro golf player is an "innocent bystander" and he is not deserving of the focus and "false finger pointing."

Yes, Mickelson agreed to pay back the $931,000, as well as about $100,000 in interest, to the government. But as per the SEC's own rules, he should have never been in possession of this money in the first place.

Instead of facing jail time, however, Mickelson merely had to cut a check for $931,000. He didn't even have to promise to not engage in similar behavior in the future. Even for someone worth so much money, handing $931,000 to the government without putting up a fight seems suspicious.

Profitable Businesses to Start In 2016

Startup2016

Many consider self-employment the American dream and strive towards leaving their jobs behind. Lets take a look at some business that will be profitable in 2016 if you are one of these individuals looking for a business idea. You might consider what you know about and what you are good at doing. But looking at profitable industries can also be of great help.

The metals industry has a good profit margin, around 10% net, and there is plenty of demand at this time for coating and engravers. The repair of electronic equipment is something that everyone is looking for to save some money in comparison to purchasing the latest version. Net profit in the industry is a little bit better than 10.3%. Another place to look is technological consulting. Help companies get up to speed on new products and services in the marketplace.

Day Trader Tax Strategies Can Save Money

Day Trader Taxes

If you are a day trader, the following day trader tax strategies are for you.

Are you in the habit of trading stocks frequently on a daily basis? If so, there are some things you need to understand about the way the US government views this habit. If not, you could find yourself consumed with paperwork come April 15, and your profits will shrink once the IRS takes its share.

Here are some things you need to know if you are an active investor seeking to reduce your tax bills.

Trader versus Investor

These words each have special meaning in the tax world and carry with them some positives and negatives. By IRS definition, most individuals are considered investors. However, if your days are spent buying and selling, you are more likely a trader. Having this title could save you some serious cash at tax time. What is more, your investing expenses, like computer and other home office equipment are fully deductible.

H&R Block Earnings And Performance

H&RBlockTaxPrep

H & R Block is experiencing some bad moments as a result of the delay in the commencement of tax filing for the current year. The company made it known last year that their earnings have taken a bad shape and the situation is worsened by the fact that the company also had a loss in the last quarter. The unstable value of the currency also worsens the condition.

The situation looks horrible to them. Things do not seem favorable as there have been series of loses in recent times. For example, the last auditing showed that the value of shares dropped by more than 5%, making the stock to be valued at about $31. The effect of that downward trend still has an effect in the value of stocks in the current year.

Etsy Stock Jumps Even With Loss

Etsy

Etsy reported its fourth quarter results with $88 million in revenue and a 4 cent loss. The revenue was slightly higher than expected but the loss was 3 cents more than they thought. Gross merchandise sales leaped 23% in the quarter compared to the fourth quarter a year ago. The stock moved higher 13% after the announcement in after hours trading.

Sellers on the site number over 1.6 million in the quarter. And buyers on the site increased to 24 million. The stock had a strong initial offering last year but has struggled since then, still trading lower than its starting price.

Insider Buying With the Worst Yearly Market Start

2016 has been the worst ever start to a year of trading for the US stock market. The VIX is hovering near 30 as investors are exiting positions and moving into safer positions. The release of earnings reports for quarter four of 2015 hasn’t helped the markets recover very much either. The price of oil continues to dominate headlines and stock movements as oil stocks move lower and the price of oil declines.

Surprisingly insider selling hasn’t moved higher with overall selling in the market. And some insiders are actually taking this opportunity to purchase more shares of their companies.

Barnes and Noble (BKS) saw a director purchase 5000 shares recently as the stock has bottom out around $8.25 a share. The stock is down 44% this year as the Nook didn’t deliver on sales and the retail business has suffered with Amazon dominating book sales nationwide. Sales at retail declined from $1.84 billion to $1.80 billion over the last year. Digital sales including Nook devises fell from $133.9 billion to $97.8 billion. This one director, Scott S Cower, sees some upside but investors and hedge funds are still resistant to going long.

How Long To Hold Your Tax Records

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The IRS is able to audit your tax return for three years after you file it and  you are able to amend a tax return for three years after it is due. So you should keep at least 3 years of tax forms and tax documents, showing all your income, expenses and deductions for that amount of time. This year, you will want to have tax files for 2014, 2013, and 2012. Obamacare has also added the need to keep track of health insurance records along with your tax documents starting this tax season.

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